3.0 Needs Analysis

Public workshops were held in Alameda on November 12 and December 3, 1998, with the purpose of identifying bicycling needs. Attendees were asked to comment verbally and on a written survey. They were also asked to show on large-scale maps of the City their current riding habits and views on bicycling opportunities and constraints in Alameda. Additionally, surveys were mailed to over 80 citizens and local employees who registered for bike-to-work day with Rides for Bay Area Commuters. Results of the surveys (52), workshop and subsequent correspondence and field review are presented below.

Bicycle Survey Results

1. Bicycle ownership: 0 bicycles 0.0%

1 47.4%

2 31.6%

3 15.8%

4+ 5.2%

2. Type of Bicycle: BMX/Mtn.Bike 45.8%

Road 41.7%

Cruiser 12.5%

3. Bicycling levels: 1x or more per day 38.9.%

1-6x/week 50.0%

1-3x/month 11.1%

Very rarely 0.0%

Never 0.0%

4. Trip purpose: recreation 48.7%

shopping 17.8%

work 33.5%

school 0.0%

5. Reason why you don't ride or ride more often:

no reason 8.7%

safety 26.1%

lack of places to ride 17.4%

lack of bike parking 13.0%

weather/darkness 30.4%

need access to car 4.4%

6. Top constraints: Webster Tube 7%

Central Ave. 6%

Signals not geared towards bikes 6%

Lack of bike storage/racks 6%

Busy streets (Bay View Dr, Central) 6%

Bike security (south shore, library, Park St., ferry) 6%

Lack of general infrastructure (lanes, ramps, signals) 4%

Unfinished path from Bay View to Raven's Cove 4%

Extend bike path by shoreline all around Alameda Pt. 4%

Access to Oakland and BART 4%

Driver Education 3%

Need more "Keep Right" stencils on Shoreline path 3%

Irregular stop signs 3%

Park and Oak streets 3%

Shoreline street and path busy 3%

Access to bike bridge 3%

Speed of Traffic 1%

Access to Otis (and other parallel streets) from bike bridge 1%

Lack of knowledge of West end routes 1%

Lack of paths on busy streets 1%

Access to Jack London Sq. 1%

Need bike path on old belt line rail road 1%

More east/west to base via Clement 1%

Surface of road to Fruitvale 1%

Narrow unmarked roads 1%

Disconnected bike lanes, sudden ends 1%

Unfinished path along W. side of Webster to access health club 1%

Atlantic to ferry 1%

Narrow paths along water 1%

Access to Alameda Point at wildlife refuge 1%

Water taxi needed 1%

Heavy traffic on Lincoln 1%

Encinal Ave. going west from Park is unsafe 1%

Make one way streets on N-S streets 1%

Sherman and Santa Clara intersection 1%

Access to Fruitvale BART 1%

Island Dr. at Mecartney 1%



More Popular Routes:

Shoreline 11%

Bay Farm Loop 6%

Fruitvale Bridge 6%

Atlantic 6%

Central (West) 5%

Central (East) 5%

Santa Clara 4%

Tilden Way 4%

Main 4%

Grand 4%

Embarcadero 3%

These results plus many individual comments represent a summary and sample of opportunities and constraints in Alameda, and were used to help create this bicycle system and program.

In concert with the goals of bicycle planning, reviewing the needs of bicyclists can be useful in pursuing competitive funding and attempting to quantify future usage and benefits to justify expenditures of resources.

3.1 Commuter and Recreational Bicycle Needs

The purpose of reviewing the needs of recreational and commuter bicyclists is twofold: (a) it is instrumental when planning a system which must serve both user groups and (b) it is useful when pursuing competitive funding and attempting to quantify future usage and benefits to justify expenditures of resources. According to a May 1991 Lou Harris Poll, it was reported that "...nearly 3 million adults--about one in 60--already commute by bike. This number could rise to 35 million if more bicycle friendly transportation systems existed." In short, there is a large reservoir of potential bicyclists in Alameda who don't ride (or ride more often) simply because they do not feel comfortable using the existing street system and/or don't have appropriate bicycle facilities at their destination.

Key general observations about bicycling needs in Alameda include:



Casual riders include those who feel less comfortable negotiating traffic. Others such as children and the elderly may have difficulty gauging traffic, responding to changing conditions, or moving rapidly enough to clear intersections. Other bicyclists, experienced or not, may be willing to sacrifice time by avoiding heavily traveled arterials and using quieter side streets. In some cases, casual riders may perceive side streets (or sidewalks) as being safer alternatives than major through routes, when in fact they may be less safe. Other attributes of the casual bicyclist include shorter distances than the experienced rider and unfamiliarity with many of the rules of the road.

The casual bicyclist will benefit from route markers, paths, bike lanes, wider curb lanes, and educational programs. Casual bicyclists may also benefit from marked routes that lead to parks, museums, historic districts, and other visitor destinations.

Experienced bicyclists include those who prefer the most direct, through route between origin and destination, and a preference for riding within or near the travel lanes. Experienced bicyclists negotiate streets in much the same manner as motor vehicles, merging across traffic to make left turns, and avoiding bike lanes and shoulders that can contain gravel and glass. The experienced bicyclist will benefit from wider curb lanes and loop detectors at signals. The experienced bicyclist who is primarily interested in exercise will benefit from loop routes which lead back to the point of origin.

Bicycles themselves range in cost from about $350 to over $2,000 for adult models. The most popular bicycle type today is the hybrid mountain bike or BMX. These relatively light weight bicycles feature wider knobby tires that can handle both on-road and off-road conditions, from 10 to 27 gears, and up-right handlebars. Advanced versions have features such as front and rear shocks to help steady the rider on rough terrain. Road bicycles (as opposed to mountain bicycles) have evolved from the 10-speeds of years past into a sophisticated ultra-light 'road bicycle' that is used primarily by the serious longer distance adult bicyclists. These expensive machines feature very narrow tires that are more susceptible to flats and blow-outs from debris on the roadway.

Who rides bicycles? While the majority of Americans (and Alameda residents) own bicycles, most of these people are recreational riders who ride relatively infrequently. School children between the ages of about 7 and 12 make up a large percentage of the bicycle riders today, often riding to school, parks, or other local destinations on a daily basis, weather permitting. The serious adult road bicyclist who may compete in races, 'centuries' (100 mile tours) and/or ride for exercise makes up a small but important segment of bikeway users, along with serious off-road mountain bicyclists who enjoy riding on trails and dirt roads. The single biggest adult group of bicyclists in Alameda is the intermittent recreational rider who generally prefers to ride on pathways or quiet side streets. Bicycle commuters make up a small but important segment of the commuting population.

3.1.1 Bicycle Commuter Needs and Benefits

Bicycle Commuter Needs

Commuter bicyclists in Alameda range from employees who ride to work to a child who rides to school. Millions of dollars nationwide have been spent attempting to increase the number of people who ride to work or school, with moderate success. Bicycling requires shorter commutes, which runs counter to most land use and transportation policies that encourage people to live farther and farther from where they work. Access to transit helps extend the commute range of cyclists, but transit systems also face an increasingly dispersed live-work pattern that is difficult to serve. Despite these facts, Alameda has a great potential to increase the number of people who ride to work or school because of (a) the small size of the city, (b) moderate density residential neighborhoods near employment centers, (c) a level terrain and favorable climate throughout most of the year, and (d) transit services, which allow bicycles on board, to major employment centers such as the San Francisco/Oakland Ferry, AC Transit's 51 bus line to downtown Oakland, and the nearby Fruitvale and Lake Merrit BART stations and (e) high percentage of residents who work in Alameda.

Key bicycle commuter needs in Alameda are summarized below.

Commuter bicyclists typically fall into one of three categories: (1) adult employees, (2) younger students (typically ages 7-15), and (3) shoppers.

Commuter trips range from several blocks to up to five miles.

Commuters typically seek the most direct and fastest route available, with regular adult commuters often preferring to ride on arterials rather than side streets.

Commute periods typically coincide with peak traffic volumes and congestion, increasing the exposure to potential conflicts with vehicles.

Places to safely store bicycles is of paramount importance to all bicycle commuters.

Major commuter concerns include changes in weather (rain), riding in darkness, personal safety and security.

Rather than be directed to side streets, most commuting adult cyclists would prefer to be given bike lanes or wider curb lanes on direct routes.

Unprotected crosswalks and intersections (no stop sign or signal control) in general are the primary concerns of all bicycle commuters.

Commuters generally prefer routes where they are required to stop as few times as possible, thereby minimizing delay.

Many younger students (ages 7-11) use sidewalks for riding to schools or parks, which is acceptable in areas where pedestrian volumes are low and driveway visibility is high. Where on-street parking and/or landscaping obscures visibility, sidewalk riders may be exposed to a higher incidence of accidents. Older students (12 years or older) who consistently ride at speeds over 10 mph should be directed to riding on-street wherever possible.

Students riding the wrong-way on-street are common and account for the greatest number of recorded accidents in California, pointing to the need for safety education.

Traffic and Air Quality Benefits of Bicycle Commuting

A key goal of the Bicycle Master Plan is to maximize the number of bicycle commuters in order to help achieve large transportation goals such as minimizing traffic congestion and air pollution. In order to set the framework for these benefits, national statistics and policies are used as a basis for determining the benefits to Alameda.

Currently, nearly 3 million adults (about 1 in 60) commute by bicycle. This number could rise to 35 million if adequate facilities were provided (according to a 1991 Lou Harris Poll).

The latent "need" for bicycle facilities--versus actual bicyclists--is difficult to quantify; we must rely on evaluation of comparable communities to determine potential usage.

Mode split refers to the choice of transportation people make whether for work or non-work trips. Currently, the average household in the U.S. generates about 10 vehicle trips per day. Work trips account for less than 30% of these trips on average.

Using the 1990 U.S. census, 1.5% (661) of all employed Alameda residents commute primarily by bicycle. This does not include those who ride to work less than 50% of the time, nor does it always include those who may walk or ride to transit and list "transit" as their primary mode.

Nationally, the mean travel time for bicycle and pedestrian commuters was 14.2 minutes, which translates roughly into a commute distance of about 3.5 miles for bicyclists.

The U.S. Department of Transportation in their publication entitled "National Walking and Bicycling Study" (1995) sets as a national goal the doubling of current walk and bicycling mode shares by the year 2010, assuming that a comprehensive bicycle system was in place. This would translate into a commute bicycle mode share of 3.0% or 1,322 commuters in Alameda. Add to this number the number of commuters who bicycle occasionally, bike-to-transit, and students at local schools, and the average number of daily bicyclists in Alameda increases to an estimated 2,579 bicycle commuters by 2010. These bicyclists will be saving an estimated 780,200 vehicle trips and 1,929,430 vehicle miles per year.

The combined air quality benefits of these future bicycle commuters over the next 20 years is an annual reduction of about 36,368 lbs. of PM10, 98,588 lbs. of NOx, and 143,494 lbs. of ROG.

Bicycling is one of the most popular forms of recreational activity in the United States, with 46% of Americans bicycling for pleasure. These figures indicate that about 33,350 residents in Alameda do or would like to bicycle for pleasure. If nothing else, this indicates a latent demand for facilities and a potent constituency to push for better facilities. Another way of saying this is, "if you build it, they will come."

Table 2 provides a detailed summary of bicycle demand and benefits.





Table 2

Demographics and Bicycle Transportation in Alameda





Population (1998 DOF estimate)		 72,500
Land Area (estimated) 12.75 sq miles
Population Density 5,686 persons/sq mi




Estimated Alameda Residents who would like to Bicycle for Pleasure



33,350




Current Bicycle Commute Mode Share (1990)



661 commuters (1.5%)




Future Bicycle Commute Mode Share



1,322 commuters

(3.0%)





School-related bicycle commuters (20% of 7 to 14 year olds)



1,257 commuters

(1.6%)





Total future bicycle commuters



2,579 commuters




Reduced Vehicle Trips/Year



780,200




Reduced Vehicle Miles/Year



1,929,430




Reduced PM10/lbs./Year



36,368




Reduced NoX/lbs./Year



98,588




Reduced ROG/lbs./Year



143,494


1 Assume 7 mile average round trip, and average of 200 commute days/year bike/walk commute for adult commuters and 100 commute days/year for students. Projected 20% future school commute share based on a study in San Diego County; current school commute mode in Alameda not known.

3.1.2 Recreational Needs

The needs of recreational bicyclists in Alameda must be understood prior to developing a system or set of improvements. While it is not possible to serve every neighborhood street and every need, a good plan will integrate recreational needs to the extent possible. The following points summarize recreational needs:

Recreational bicycling in Alameda typically falls into one of three categories: (1) exercise, (2) non-work destination such as a park or shopping, or (3) touring.

Recreational users range from healthy adults to children to senior citizens. Each group has their own abilities, interests, and needs.

Directness of route is typically less important than routes with less traffic conflicts. Visual interest, shade, protection from wind, moderate gradients, or other features are more important.

People exercising or touring often (though not always) prefer a loop route rather than having to back-track.

3.2 Accident Analysis

Bicycle-related accidents were collected for the past ten years (1988-1997) in Alameda. A total of 631 bicycle-related accidents occurred in that time period. While the long time period and a variety

of other potential factors make it difficult to draw a conclusion from this data, it is apparent that bicycle-related incidents are a significant issue in Alameda. Compared to other communities in California on the number of incidents per 1,000 persons, Alameda's rate (0.87 incidents per 1,000 persons per year) is slightly above the average of 0.67 incidents per 1,000 persons of over 30 other California cities. This rate does not account for the fact that in some communities, such as Alameda,



there are more people bicycling than average and therefore there will be a higher accident rate. In other words, the accident rate per bicycle trip in Alameda is likely to be at or below average.

The top 10 bicycle-related accident locations in Alameda are:

1. Otis Dr. & Park (14 accidents)

2. Otis Dr. & Willow (12)

3. Grand & Otis (12)

4. Central Ave. & Webster (10)

5. Central Ave. & Park (9)

6. Sherman & Eagle Ave. (8)

7. Broadway & Otis (7)

8. Central Ave. & Ballena (6)

9. Lincoln Ave. & Willow (6)

10. Shoreline Dr. & Willow (6)

This list indicates the high incidence of accidents on both major and minor streets such as Otis, Central, as well as Willow. The pattern of accidents at Otis and Park indicates that over half (57%) occurred on weekend days, over half (57%) had the bicyclist at fault, and the average age was 21.4 years of age. Figure 3 illustrates the pattern of bicycle-related accidents in Alameda for the past 10 years.

The recommended bikeway system will address these problem areas by identifying specific improvements (including safety and education improvements) and/or providing alternative routes which help bicyclists avoid these areas.





























































































Figure 3: Bicycle Accident Locations